金融市場(chǎng)的時(shí)間規(guī)律
來源:維思邁財(cái)經(jīng)2024-06-13 22:02:43
在當(dāng)今全球經(jīng)濟(jì)體系中,金融市場(chǎng)扮演著至關(guān)重要的角色。投資者們不斷地尋找能夠預(yù)測(cè)股票、債券和商品價(jià)格變動(dòng)的方法,以便獲取最大利潤(rùn)。然而,在這個(gè)充滿競(jìng)爭(zhēng)和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的領(lǐng)域里,有一種被廣泛研究并引起極大關(guān)注的現(xiàn)象:金融市場(chǎng)存在著某種看似隨機(jī)卻又具備穩(wěn)定性與周期性規(guī)律——即所謂“時(shí)間規(guī)律”。
近年來, 關(guān)于金融市場(chǎng)中潛藏的時(shí)間規(guī)律問題已成為學(xué)術(shù)界熱議話題之一。從歷史數(shù)據(jù)分析到數(shù)學(xué)模型建立再到實(shí)證檢驗(yàn), 學(xué)者們對(duì)此進(jìn)行了深入探討,并得出了一些令人信服且值得思考的結(jié)論。
首先, 在日內(nèi)交易層面上,“尾盤效應(yīng)”是一個(gè)較為常見也相對(duì)容易觀察到的現(xiàn)象。簡(jiǎn)言之就是指股價(jià)或指數(shù)更可能在交易日結(jié)束時(shí)出現(xiàn)劇烈波動(dòng)或反轉(zhuǎn)走勢(shì)。“尾盤效應(yīng)”的發(fā)生原因多方復(fù)雜,但其周期性表現(xiàn)無可否認(rèn): 多次統(tǒng)計(jì)顯示,在美國(guó)股市及其他主要國(guó)家證券交易所都曾頻繁出現(xiàn)過類似越接近收盤時(shí)期越容易產(chǎn)生異常行情等迷惑人心態(tài)度下跌. 這使得部分投資者開始將注意力集中在每個(gè)交易日快結(jié)束前幾小時(shí)甚至分鐘內(nèi)。
其次, 跨周效應(yīng)(Weekend Effect)則展示了每周五收盤后至下周開盤前間持續(xù)兩天時(shí)間段內(nèi)特殊事件頻率偏高導(dǎo)致影響行情走向;該項(xiàng)調(diào)查結(jié)果清晰地揭露了這樣一個(gè)事實(shí):通常來說星期五閉幕式-星期二啟航初階段會(huì)經(jīng)常遇上比平均水平略微低落點(diǎn)位.
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金融市場(chǎng)
交易時(shí)間
時(shí)間規(guī)律
周期性
節(jié)假日影響
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