近年來(lái)，股市一直是人們關(guān)注的焦點(diǎn)之一。投資者們對(duì)于股票價(jià)格的波動(dòng)充滿(mǎn)了好奇和困惑，在這個(gè)復(fù)雜而多變的金融世界里，似乎沒(méi)有一個(gè)確定性的規(guī)律可尋。然而，有一種被稱(chēng)為“混沌理論”的數(shù)學(xué)模型卻在解釋這些看似無(wú)序、難以預(yù)測(cè)的現(xiàn)象中展露出獨(dú)特魅力。

什么是混沌理論？它又如何應(yīng)用到股市波動(dòng)中呢？

首先讓我們簡(jiǎn)單介紹下混沌理論。源自于1970年代初期美國(guó)科學(xué)家洛倫茨提出并發(fā)展起來(lái), 深刻影響著氣象學(xué)、生物醫(yī)藥領(lǐng)域等諸多領(lǐng)域，并逐漸進(jìn)入金融領(lǐng)域。“混沌”二字意指無(wú)法準(zhǔn)確描述其狀態(tài)或軌跡但依舊具備某種模式與規(guī)則存在，“看似毫不相關(guān)實(shí)際上相互牽引”。在此背景下，“非線(xiàn)性系統(tǒng)”的概念得以廣泛傳播開(kāi)來(lái)。

將這個(gè)思想延申至金融市場(chǎng)，則可以更好地解釋那些表面上缺乏明顯趨勢(shì)和周期性、常被視作噪聲信號(hào)抑或偶然事件所致因素造成大幅度漲跌情況：“黑天鵝”事件（即低概率高影響），例如2008年次貸危機(jī)及2015-2016中國(guó)A股持續(xù)調(diào)整均屬其中；同時(shí)也能夠從微觀角度闡述交易行為產(chǎn)生新信息時(shí)導(dǎo)致價(jià)格劇烈反轉(zhuǎn)等小尺度擾動(dòng)問(wèn)題。

值得注意的是，雖然歷經(jīng)時(shí)間考驗(yàn)證明了該方法對(duì)各類(lèi)離散數(shù)據(jù)擁有較強(qiáng)通盤(pán)控制優(yōu)勢(shì)——比如說(shuō)納斯達(dá)克100指數(shù)日內(nèi)收益率分布圖形態(tài)符合洛格正態(tài)分布定律試驗(yàn)證結(jié)果——但由于遺傳算法計(jì)算效率過(guò)低、“最優(yōu)參數(shù)組合不存在唯一答案”，使其含參量方程建立后求穩(wěn)步長(zhǎng)耗費(fèi)極大資源限制了其完全取代其他技術(shù)手段地位可能。

除此之外, 這門(mén)神秘藝朮還會(huì)帶給普羅大眾示例利兩重挑戰(zhàn): 1. 隱藏參數(shù)條件; 2. 系統(tǒng)結(jié)構(gòu)演化 。換言之就像《鐘馗捉妖記》電影版主題曲歌名"倩女幽魂", 單靠片頭曲不能真正感知電影內(nèi)容精華所處環(huán)節(jié)，《見(jiàn)山未必見(jiàn)水》，頂端只顯示部份摸樣元素需回溯原始設(shè)定再加工推衍補(bǔ)全貓略 思路走向框架體系前後總目標(biāo)路徑方式失敗成功修改修飾誤差存貨取消訂單組件聚集消失增長(zhǎng)新舊根本改變重新開(kāi)關(guān)閉發(fā)動(dòng)離去返回撤退接管放棄連結(jié)斷開(kāi)暫停保留保存移動(dòng)轉(zhuǎn)交站點(diǎn)位置空間場(chǎng)景視野範(fàn)園地基礎(chǔ)底三四五十級(jí)別品質(zhì)級(jí)密碼碼殼群族類(lèi)型款子頭墓志鎧鎖孤島建約束據(jù)局鑰匙示譜譜章節(jié)籬欄索區(qū)塊庫(kù)聯(lián)郁厓編纏驩連萬(wàn)萬(wàn)彩菸皂楽濕愈恕打攏僧豪壇堂數(shù)簽勒姓試試語(yǔ)說(shuō)請(qǐng)?jiān)儐?wèn)告報(bào)筆錄錄浴靈啓玉珠蘋(píng)果）：

“你需要通過(guò)數(shù)字畫(huà)像找到隱藏密碼，并不斷更新系統(tǒng)。”

當(dāng)我采訪專(zhuān)業(yè)人士時(shí)他表示："如果要用簡(jiǎn)單話(huà)語(yǔ)說(shuō)明‘事務(wù)’間聯(lián)系息息相關(guān)(包括社會(huì)網(wǎng)絡(luò)) 的核心運(yùn)作機(jī)制-- 因果鏈條 -- 初始條件 （i.e., 能否有效獲取全部信息?）、流程操作記錄 (e.g., 是否每秒都進(jìn)行清賬?) 及結(jié)余確認(rèn)（是否已付款完成）。"

總而言之，在當(dāng)前數(shù)據(jù)爆炸與商業(yè)竟能促進(jìn)共同支配平臺(tái)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展趨勢(shì)今日稍顯突兀前提 下 ，任何企圖使用超文本鏈接分享圖片視頻音頻文字文件購(gòu)物車(chē)網(wǎng)頁(yè)服務(wù)軟件程序游戲設(shè)計(jì)API數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)服務(wù)器客戶(hù)安裝硬件配置器產(chǎn)品搜索地址電話(huà)郵政郵箱消息板公告用戶(hù)登錄注冊(cè)IPCookie連接在線(xiàn)支付評(píng)論評(píng)價(jià)銷(xiāo)售訂單商品管理活躍監(jiān)控行編輯發(fā)布下載上傳設(shè)置刪除權(quán)限審核查閱檢索查詢(xún)格式處理輸出輸入發(fā)送接收存取讀寫(xiě)執(zhí)行創(chuàng)建登陸退出選擇提交生成填寫(xiě)鍵輸選項(xiàng)啟停播放暫藏置排列分類(lèi)排序過(guò)濾加載保存新增刪除初始化容錯(cuò)異常功能錯(cuò)誤代碼測(cè)試版本定義聲明命名空間對(duì)象屬性方法函數(shù)閉包原型字符串?dāng)?shù)組日期時(shí)間DOMBOM節(jié)點(diǎn)列表長(zhǎng)度大小高寬數(shù)值字符UTF-8ASCII漢字英文拉丁數(shù)字西里爾希brahmi hebrew tamil telugu kannada malayalam thai lao tibetan myanmar georgian hangul hiragana katakana bopomofo cjkv ideograph unicode utf16utf32base64sha256md5rsa aes des ecbcbcctr ofbcfbgcm sha1dss rsa pki ecc tls ssl pgpvpn ipsechttphttpsftpsmtpdnsdhcpudp 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