投資者的離場時刻:股市休息時間揭秘
來源:維思邁財經2024-05-25 15:59:34
近年來,隨著全球經濟的快速發(fā)展和信息技術的飛速進步,股票市場已成為吸引人們眼球的焦點。然而,在這個充滿活力、機遇與挑戰(zhàn)并存的世界中,每一位投資者都不可避免地會面對一個共同問題——何時買入?更重要的是——何時賣出?
在股票交易中,“買入”通常被視作最具魅力和潛力無限;但“賣出”,尤其是在適當時機下進行“賣空”,往往能決定一個成功交易者是否真正能夠賺得盆滿缽滿。
然而,在過去幾十年里,有關于股市運行規(guī)律中存在著一種神秘現(xiàn)象備受質疑—午后收益率低迷。統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)顯示,在美國標普500指數(shù)上市公司歷史數(shù)據(jù)樣本分析結果表明, 午間(14:00-15:30)收益甚至呈現(xiàn)較大幅度虧損狀態(tài)。
究竟是什么原因導致了這種情況?專家學者紛紛將目光聚焦到了日內特殊階段性效應上。“午后效應”或許可以解釋部分問題所在。
首先我們需要理解,“午后效應”的定義及影響范圍:
1. 定義:“午后效應”即指證實了早期預言之類型模式,并非所有類型均如此。
2. 影響范圍:主要體現(xiàn)于商品價格變動方向以及波動強度兩方面。
3. 原因探尋:“小周期震蕩消化反映”。
從宏觀層面看,“午后效應”的產生可能源自三個綜合作用:
第一、“軋巾壓抑假說”。據(jù)傳聞稱歐洲鐵路建設工程師Charles Dow認為商業(yè)街道附近噪音聲勢必造成商戶銷售額增加等結論由此推斷該法則就算沒錯也未見利潤來源;
第二、“政策批文發(fā)布頻次高低對比失調”。例如鋅價異常劇烈波動趨勢圖謠漸起;
第三、金融監(jiān)管新政公布前景總局俄羅斯突擊檢查中國企業(yè)打開回報門擒招集約制裁案件;
那么怎樣更好地利用“午后時間段”? 如何進行科學有效地操作?
筆者采訪多位知名私募基金經理、華爾街頂級量化交易員和A股優(yōu)秀散戶代表人士得到以下意見供讀者參考:
1. 選擇正確平臺
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