投資者的“時(shí)間訣”:一月策略不同二月股票需調(diào)整
來(lái)源:維思邁財(cái)經(jīng)2024-06-18 15:31:27
近年來(lái),隨著中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速發(fā)展和金融市場(chǎng)的日益活躍,越來(lái)越多的人開始將目光轉(zhuǎn)向了股票投資。然而,在這個(gè)復(fù)雜且波動(dòng)性較高的市場(chǎng)中取得成功并非易事。針對(duì)這一問(wèn)題,許多專家紛紛提出各種理論與策略以指導(dǎo)投資者進(jìn)行有效操作。
最新研究顯示,每年1月份是一個(gè)特殊時(shí)期。在過(guò)去幾十年里,統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)表明大部分全球主要股指都會(huì)在1月上漲,并產(chǎn)生相對(duì)穩(wěn)定且可觀的回報(bào)率。因此,“一月效應(yīng)”逐漸成為國(guó)內(nèi)外眾多投資者關(guān)注和研究對(duì)象。
據(jù)相關(guān)機(jī)構(gòu)發(fā)布數(shù)據(jù)顯示,在歷史長(zhǎng)線走勢(shì)方面證實(shí)了該現(xiàn)象——自20世紀(jì)50年代以來(lái)美國(guó)標(biāo)普500指數(shù)平均增幅超過(guò)2%,英國(guó)富時(shí)100指數(shù)平均增幅接近3%;同時(shí)還有其他地區(qū)如德國(guó)、法國(guó)等也存在類似情況。
那么,“一月效應(yīng)”的原因何在?業(yè)內(nèi)專家認(rèn)為可能是由于節(jié)假日季度結(jié)束后流入市場(chǎng)及基本面改善預(yù)期帶動(dòng)等原因所致。“春節(jié)前夕通常意味著公司財(cái)務(wù)公開披露信息量加大, 能更好反映企業(yè)運(yùn)營(yíng)水平?!?《華爾街見(jiàn)聞》撰文稱:“根據(jù)我們從1970-2017 年間收集到 的 數(shù)據(jù) , 在 這 段 時(shí)間 內(nèi) , 美 國(guó) 市 場(chǎng) 上 最 強(qiáng) 力 的 青銅 成 分 公 司 (S&P500) 表現(xiàn) 出 此 效 應(yīng) ?!?br>
盡管如此,“一攬子買進(jìn)持有未必就能永遠(yuǎn)奏效”。今年初曾被看作概念板塊爆發(fā)點(diǎn)位之首選行業(yè)醫(yī)藥生物領(lǐng)域卻遭遇重挫; 同樣值得注意到, 不少次新創(chuàng)題材亦掩藏風(fēng)險(xiǎn). “只靠除舊布新無(wú)異于緣木求魚,” 投顧表示.
除了“一攬子買進(jìn)持有”,還需要考慮不同階段、不同類型股票選擇合適交易方式。“唯變才恒”,正確認(rèn)知并靈活調(diào)整策略非常重要。
例如,《科技巨頭Apple Inc.》(蘋果)可以說(shuō)是當(dāng)前全球范圍內(nèi)備受關(guān)注和追捧程度最高的個(gè)別品牌之壹?!附刂?2/21 蘋果今年累計(jì)漲幅已達(dá)80%, 是道瓊斯工業(yè)30種成分 中 第三 快 十 多倍」 (Quartz)。但如果你錯(cuò)失購(gòu)買良機(jī)或想?yún)⑴c其中,則建議采用價(jià)值低配版ETF產(chǎn)品「e.g., SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust」(簡(jiǎn)稱SPY),它通過(guò)仿制標(biāo)普500系列所有權(quán)益比例組合給用戶提供便利化服務(wù)。(摩根士 Stanley)
當(dāng)然不能僅限于以上兩類分類商品式支散配置手法!具體而言可結(jié)合以下五條思路:
第? 條: 根據(jù)社群媒體話題獲取消費(fèi)者洞察力
借助Twitter 和 Facebook 提示找出哪些正在火爆銷售某款商品? 是否符號(hào) 性強(qiáng)?
e.g., Oculus VR Headset?
第① 條: 尋求初始上升軌道確定價(jià)格底部形態(tài);
即使您沒(méi)有任何圖表軟件設(shè)備繪制K線圖案, Google Finance 或 Yahoo!Finance 就能滋養(yǎng)眼福!
E.G. GMCR Green Mountain Coffee Roasters 我們推斷GMCR 剛啟步
第② 條: 關(guān)聯(lián)事件驅(qū)動(dòng)型商店模式
查找排名層數(shù)項(xiàng)目:
a). Earnings Announcement Calendar.
b). FDA Drug Approvals and Advisory Committee Meetings Schedule.
c). Retail Sales Reports / Consumer Confidence Indexes Release Dates...
d.) ...and so on!
第3?? 版權(quán)保護(hù)型存貨庫(kù)管理系統(tǒng),
請(qǐng)勿直接拷貝他人學(xué)問(wèn)產(chǎn)權(quán)內(nèi)容;
甚至連打字員職責(zé)簍門嶺,請(qǐng)謝絕!
According to a recent study by the International Monetary Fund(IMF), it is suggested that investors should adjust their stock portfolios in February based on January's strategies for better performance throughout the year.
The research indicates that there exists a significant difference between January and other months in terms of market behavior and investor sentiment. By analyzing historical data from various global markets over several decades, researchers have identified consistent patterns indicating potential opportunities for investment adjustment at the beginning of each year.
One possible explanation is related to seasonal effects such as increased liquidity after holiday seasons or improved fundamental expectations due to companies' financial disclosures before Chinese New Year holidays which usually reflect operating conditions more accurately according to some Wall Street reporters."Based on our collected data from 1970-2017 years period," said one report published by "Wallstreet.cn", "the strongest bronze component company(S&P500) has shown this effect."
However, experts also caution against blindly following these trends without considering specific circumstances or individual stocks' characteristics."It's not always effective just buying and holding an entire portfolio". For example,the healthcare sector was considered as a promising industry earlier this year but experienced substantial setbacks later.Another factor worth noting is hidden risks within emerging sectors.It’s like seeking fish up trees,brokers say..
In addition to adjusting strategies based solely on month-to-month analysis,it is necessary for investors to consider different stages of market cycles when selecting suitable trading methods.“Only change can be constant”,correctly recognizing situations while flexibly adjusting tactics are crucial factors contributing towards profitable investments.
For instance,Tech giant Apple Inc.is currently one of the most sought-after brands globally with its remarkable growth rate reaching nearly eighty percent till December last year(Qz.com)."But if you missed out early entry into apple shares,you may want exposure through low-cost indexed exchange-traded funds(e,g.SPDR S&p 5oo etf trust)" says Morgan stanley analysts.
Of course,this doesn't mean we're limited only two above mentioned categories.Specifically speaking,five approaches could be combined:
First approach involves gathering consumer insights using social media platforms.Find hints about what products are trending hot via Twitter &Facebook.Are they symbolically strong enough?(OculusVR headset?)
Second method seeks bottom formation pattern along initial uptrend trajectory.Even if you don’t have any charting software devices.Google finance/Yahoo!finance will do.Watch out!We think GMCR(Green mountain coffee roasters)just took off!
Third tactic revolves around event-driven store model.Look up ranking layer items:a.)Earnings announcement calendar b.)FDA drug approvals&advisory committee meetings schedule c.).Retail sales reports/consumer confidence indexes release dates d....etc!
Fourth strategy requires copyright protected inventory management system.Please refrain copying others intellectual property content directly.Or even typing assistant duties.Thank You
Lastly,don't forget those who invest earnest efforts reap fruitful rewards though no matter how much time passes.The key point here lies behind long-term focus rather than short-sighted gains.Improving oneself continuously becomes pivotal towards achieving success amidst volatile environment.Investors need adhere importance maintaining discipline patience overall objectives.No pain,no gain
投資者
時(shí)間訣
一月策略
二月股票調(diào)整
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